What would 1998 thru 2012 have looked like under BCS 2.0 template?
Posted: 22 May 2013 03:31 AM   [ Ignore ]
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I was reading an article today about how all of the conferences are now reshuffling their entire bowl lineup to fit the College Football Playoff and Access Bowl model.

It all seems so bizarre that the Big 12 just walked away from the Fiesta Bowl AND the Cotton Bowl altogether.

So I decide to take a look at 1998-2012 thru the prism of BCS 2.0 (College Football Playoff and Access Bowls).

(In lieu of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee Standings I used the BCS standings)

K State would have made the playoff in 1998 and would have played in 6 other Access Bowls (either Access Bowls or Sugar Bowl*)  The exact number of Access Bowl vs Sugar Bowls is guess work as their is an issue that has yet to be addressed in practical application, which I will get into further on in this post*.

So here are the Playoff/Access Bowl/Sugar Bowl placements as they would have occurred* 1998 - 2012:
(This assumes the first year the Sugar Bowl is hosting a playoff and every 3 years afterward as in the 2014 model)

1998
Playoff           K State
Sugar Bowl Playoff
Alamo Bowl Texas A&M, Big 12 Champion
Access Bowl Nebraska

1999
Playoff           Nebraska, Big 12 Champion
Sugar Bowl Texas  
Access Bowl K State

2000
Playoff           Oklahoma, Big 12 Champion
Sugar Bowl Iowa State*
Access Bowl K State
Access Bowl Texas  
Access Bowl Nebraska

2001
Playoff           Nebraska
Playoff           Colorado, Big 12 Champion
Sugar Bowl Playoff
Access Bowl Texas  
Access Bowl Oklahoma

2002
Sugar Bowl Oklahoma, Big 12 Champion
Access Bowl K State
Access Bowl Texas  
 
2003
Playoff           Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl K State, Big 12 Champion
Access Bowl Texas  

2004

Playoff           Oklahoma, Big 12 Champion
Playoff           Texas  
Sugar Bowl Playoff


2005

Playoff           Texas, Big 12 Champion  
Sugar Bowl Oklahoma

2006

Access Bowl Oklahoma, Big 12 Champion
Sugar Bowl Nebraska

2007

Playoff           Oklahoma, Big 12 Champion
Sugar Bowl Playoff
Access Bowl Kansas
Access Bowl Missouri

2008

Playoff           Oklahoma, Big 12 Champion
Playoff           Texas  
Sugar Bowl Texas Tech

2009

Playoff           Texas, Big 12 Champion  
Sugar Bowl Nebraska

2010

Sugar Bowl Playoff
Access Bowl Oklahoma, Big 12 Champion
Access Bowl Missouri

2011

Playoff           Oklahoma State, Big 12 Champion
Sugar Bowl Oklahoma*
Access Bowl K State*
Access Bowl Baylor*
 
2012

Sugar Bowl Texas*
Access Bowl K State, Big 12 Champion* 
Access Bowl Oklahoma, Big 12 Champion*

Now for the * unresolved issue:  The Big 12 conference has the right to select its representative to the Sugar Bowl in years when the Sugar Bowl is not hosting a semi final playoff game.  When the Big 12 has teams in the Selection Committee’s Top 12 they are guaranteed a slot in the Access Bowls.  The question yet to be applied and resolved is this.  Will the Big 12 select a team outside of the Selection Committees Top 12 to go to the Sugar Bowl when it means more BCS money?  My guess is they vote “more money”

In years 1998 thru 2012 where this would have been a real decision to make on the part of the Big 12:

2000 Oklahoma with a top 4 ranking is guaranteed a playoff spot.  K State, Texas and Nebraska were all in the Top 12 guaranteeing an Access Bowl slot, Iowa State was not in the top 12 but at #23 with a 9-3 record could have been placed in the Sugar Bowl, thus guaranteeing the Big 12 more seats at the BCS 2.0 table and more $$$

2011 Oklahoma State #3 was guaranteed a playoff spot, K State #8 and Baylor #12 would have been Guaranteed an Access Bowl, Oklahoma #14 could have been placed in the Sugar Bowl

2012 K State #5 and Oklahoma #11 were guaranteed Access Bowls but Texas at #23 could have been placed in the Sugar Bowl.

Needless to say looking at these projections the Loss of the Fiesta Bowl and Cotton Bowls relationships seem to be a moot point. 

The Alamo Bowl may for all appearances be getting s boost in the Big 12 Bowl pecking order but in reality they are probably going to be getting lower Big 12 selections.

Source for BCS Standings:  http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/2012_archive_bcs.html

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Posted: 22 May 2013 03:46 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]
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Here is a list by School and by (conference affiliations current as of 2014) Conference how many Playoff births and how many Access Bowls 1998-2012 using the BCS 2.0 Template:

For this exercise I have attributed Playoff/Access Bowl slots earned by each team to the Conference they are now in or projected to be in in 2014.  For example in the conference Tally I have counted all Nebraska Playoff/Access Bowl projections to the Big 10, Colorado to PAC 12, TCU to Big 12, etc…

Historical BCS Rankings 1998 – 2012
 
Top 4 BCS Rankings = Playoff Slots
 
Alabama 5
Ohio State 5
Oklahoma 5
LSU 4
USC 4
Florida 3
Florida State 3
Miami 3
Oregon 3
Texas 3
Auburn 2
Michigan 2
Nebraska 2
Stanford 2
TCU 2
Virginia Tech 2
Cincinnati 1
Colorado 1
Georgia 1
Kansas State (1998) 1
Notre Dame 1
Oklahoma State 1
Penn State 1
Tennessee 1
Washington 1


Access Bowl Slots #5 thru #12

Boise State 6
Florida 6
Kansas State 6
Georgia 5
LSU 5
Oklahoma 5
Virginia Tech 5
Wisconsin 5
Notre Dame 4
Ohio State 4
Oregon 4
Texas 4
Arkansas 3
Iowa 3
Penn State 3
Tennessee 3
USC 3
Auburn 2
Florida State 2
Louisville 2
Miami (Fla.) 2
Michigan 2
Michigan State 2
Missouri 2
Nebraska 2
South Carolina 2
Stanford 2
Texas A&M 2
Utah 2
Washington State 2
West Virginia 2
Arizona 1
Arizona State 1
Baylor 1
California 1
Cincinnati 1
Georgia Tech 1
Hawaii 1
Kansas 1
Marshall 1
Maryland 1
Miami (Ohio) 1
Oregon State 1
TCU 1
Texas Tech 1
Tulane 1
UCLA 1
Virginia 1


Playoff births by conference

SEC 16
Big 12 12
Big 10 10
PAC 12 11
ACC 8
AAC (Cincinnati) 1
Notre Dame 1

Access bowls by conference

SEC 30
Big 12 22
Big 10 22
PAC 12 18
ACC 13
AAC (Cincinnati) 1
Notre Dame 4
Tulane 1
Miami Ohio 1
Hawaii 1

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Posted: 22 May 2013 03:53 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]
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This is a list of the TOP 10 teams earning Top 12 BCS finishes, prior to post season play 1998-2012, translating into Playoff and Access Bowl placements:

1 Oklahoma - 10
2 Ohio State - 9
3 LSU - 9
4 Florida - 9
5 USC - 7
6 Oregon - 7
7 Texas - 7
8 Kansas State - 7
9 Georgia - 6
10 Boise State - 6

And NO, I didn’t leave out Alabama who would be #11 on this list with 5 Playoff births and ZERO Access Bowls.  Although Sugar Bowl placemetn could be raised by the same issue I discussed earlier regarding the Big 12 placing a non top 12 team in Sugar Bowl to get more money, same is true for SEC…

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